Gob Wire

North Korea is ready to talk to the U.S. about giving up its nuclear weapons, according to South Korea’s director of national security, Chung Eui-yong, who led a 10-member South Korean delegation which met Monday with Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, in a groundbreaking 4-hour dinner meeting in Pyongyang.

“The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize,” the South Korean envoys said in a statement. “It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed.” The North added that it would halt nuclear and missile testing during any talks.

American officials including the President have reacted to the statements with guarded optimism.

“Possible progress being made in talks with North Korea,” President Trump tweeted. “For the first time in many years, a serious effort is being made by all parties concerned. The World is watching and waiting! May be false hope, but the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!”

Similar caution-tinged positive sentiments were expressed this morning by intelligence officials at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats.”

“We saw the news this morning relative to North Korea: Hope springs eternal,” said Daniel R. Coats, director of national intelligence. “But we need to learn a lot more relative to these talks and we will, and the IC [intelligence community] will continue to do every possible collection and assessment we can relative to the situation that exists in North Korea.”

Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) followed Coats by mentioning being at this year’s Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. After holding talks in January, the two Koreas marched together during the opening ceremony as a “united” Korea and competed in women’s hockey as a unified team.

“We were over there and we watched the effect it had on people, and I agree and I believe you when you say hope springs eternal,” Inhofe said.

“There’s no reason to believe that Kim Jong Un is going to be a changed person, but I think that the news last night… that he’s ready to negotiate, he’s ready to stop his activity and his testing, do you share my somewhat optimistic view of what happened, General?”

Inhofe had referred his question to Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr., the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

“Senator right now I don’t share your optimism,” Ashley said. “That’s kind of a ‘show me.’ We’ll see how this plays out…”

But when asked later what his advice to the president would be on North Korea’s offer on talks, Ashley said: “I think you follow up, with caution. You engage.”

The advice for diplomatic engagement from the Trump-appointed general is notable, particularly given the Defense Department’s more skeptical reading of the intentions of adversaries as a core part of its mission.

Ashley also emphasized the steep challenge the U.S. still faces in trying to garner reliable intelligence about Kim Jong Un’s decision making and motives.

Diplomacy must be included as a key facet of U.S. foreign policy toward North Korea, Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) said at the committee hearing.

“A preemptive war with North Korea would be a catastrophic event for the people of South Korea and the region. Instead, we must come up with a robust deterrent strategy that lay a strong physical defense with strict sanctions and a sustained diplomatic effort,” Reed said. “We must also pursue a robust counterproliferation effort. Our strategy must be multilaterally and globally coordinated. We can contain the threat that North Korea poses without going to war if we engage in a consistent strategy and adequately resource our government agencies, especially the State Department, in coming years.”

Ample credit for getting the U.S. and North Korea this far, where serious discussions are being had on even the potential of talks between the two nations, should go to South Korea’s Chung.

While he is the director of the “Blue House’s” National Security Office for South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, Chung is a career diplomat and expert in multilateral diplomacy, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

CNN’s Joshua Berlinger and Sophie Jeong reported that it was the “first time a South Korean delegation had ever set foot in the main building of the Workers’ Party,” North Korea’s ruling political party which Kim leads.

North Korean state media, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), released a statement that said Kim had said at the dinner repeatedly in an “openhearted talk” that he wanted to “write a new history of national reunification” with South Korea.

“He repeatedly clarified that it is our consistent and principled stand and his firm will to vigorously advance the north-south relations and write a new history of national reunification by the concerted efforts of our nation to be proud of in the world.”

The news agency added that the discussions with the South Korean delegation had “a warm atmosphere overflowing with compatriotic feelings.”

Relaxing tensions between the U.S. and Korea would be welcomed by many.

Kim-watchers however are skeptical the North Korean leader would give up his nuclear weapons. They view his Olympics gambit and his dangling a denuclearization option more as an effort to depressurize, but more so, take control, of a situation in which the U.S. had been threatening further sanctions, and with some in the administration contemplating a preemptive military strike to stop North Korea from further developing nuclear weapons.

“Kim Jong Un is “controlling the clock,” Jung Pak, one of the CIA’s top former Kim experts told The Atlantic today. “What the Olympics thaw, or propaganda or pageantry did, was it slowed time down. The more there’s inter-Korean engagement, the more wind is taken out of the sails of preemptive or preventive strikes on North Korea.”

Before addressing North Korea’s seeming attempt at detente at the hearing today, DNI Coats emphasized the dangerous times in which we have recently been living, due in no small part to North Korea’s aggressive behavior:

“We currently face the most complex and challenging threat environment in modern times. The risk of interstate conflict is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War, and we have entered a period that can best be described as a race for technological superiority against our adversaries that seek to sow division in the United States and weaken U.S. leadership.

“The most immediate threats of regional interstate conflict in the next year come from North Korea and from Saudi-Iranian use of proxies in their rivalry.

“North Korea will be among the most volatile and confrontational WMD threats to the United States over the next year.”

To some, such assessments make opening up a dialogue with North Korea more reasonable, regardless of Kim’s stratagems and intentions. The failure of current and legacy policies to contain North Korea’s nuclear proliferation and therefore lower our risk is obvious.

Whereas a preemptive strike would at best get rid of one destabilizing threat – North Korean nukes – it could serve to destabilize the entire region, and thus create a long list of other dangers and unknowns: The North could shoot any surviving missiles at the South, creating mass death and casualties. And China, for one, is treaty-bound to protect its ally, North Korea, although it’s unclear whether it would. Russia would be ready to take full advantage of whichever way the situation would play out on its far east border. Korean refugees would spill into neighboring countries.

Potential calamity for South Korea and the risk of not knowing exactly how China and Russia would react to a military action taking place so near their borders create for some too high of an uncertainty to bear.

It’s important to note that at Monday’s meeting North Korea and South Korea agreed to establish a “hotline” between their leaders to avoid any misunderstandings that could turn deadly.

Which begs the question: Why aren’t we on this phone call?